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nairaland.net • View topic - What if Nigeria's president leaves office early?

What if Nigeria's president leaves office early?

For the most part, Nigerian presidents are figureheads. They all come and go with nothing to show for their terms in office.
We would love to track accomplishments of our Presidents, so credit can be given where credit is due.

What if Nigeria's president leaves office early?

Postby Richard Akindele » Fri Sep 05, 2008 11:31 am

Nigerian President Umaru Yar’Adua left for Saudi Arabia more than two weeks ago for the Islamic obligation of the lesser Hajj, a pilgrimage to Mecca. Yar’Adua, who is known to have a chronic kidney problem, has sought medical attention in Jeddah and has still not returned, raising fears about the state of his health. A medical source in Saudi Arabia told Reuters he had undergone an operation.

Government and presidency officials have been tight-lipped about the president’s condition and have not said exactly when he will be back. The opposition has demanded clarity on the president’s health, adding that his absence is having an adverse effect on the workings of government and that the official silence is fuelling speculation and uncertainty.

Should the head of state’s health be a private issue or is it a matter of public interest? Is his prolonged absence from Nigeria a cause for concern? As governor of Katsina state, Yar’Adua spent several months abroad for medical treatment without attracting much public attention, only to return, complete his term and win another one. Can he expect to do the same as leader of the nation?

Nigerian President Umaru Yar'Adua's two-week absence from Africa's most populous nation has fuelled concern over the state of his health and raised questions about what would happen if he was forced from office early.

His victory in April 2007 polls has also been challenged at the Supreme Court by his two main rivals. The court is expected to uphold his win but should the ruling, due later this year, go against him, he could be forced to step down.

Below are answers to some questions on what could happen:

HOW WELL IS YAR'ADUA?

Yar'Adua, known to have a chronic kidney problem, travelled to Saudi Arabia last month for a Muslim pilgrimage. A source in the presidency said he had received medical treatment during the trip but the government says he is healthy and will return soon.

A medical source in Saudi Arabia said Yar'Adua had undergone an operation but gave no further details.

His absence from the country for more than two weeks, despite indications that he would be home by now, has added to concerns for his health and drawn opposition calls for more transparency on his condition.

WHAT DOES THE CONSTITUTION SAY?

In the event of temporary incapacity, the vice-president takes over as acting president. But if the president becomes so indisposed that he is permanently incapable of running the government, the vice-president is sworn in as president.

He then in turn appoints a new vice-president, subject to approval by the National Assembly. The new team completes the unexpired period of the four-year presidential term.

COULD THAT BE A SMOOTH PROCESS?

The political climate in Nigeria is, however, not as straightforward as stated by the constitution.

There is an unwritten agreement among the political elite that the office of the president rotates between the north and south of the country.

President Umaru Yar'Adua, a northern Muslim, assumed office in May, 2007 after eight years of rule by former President Olusegun Obasanjo, a southern Christian.

Vice-President Goodluck Jonathan is also a southern Christian.

Should he take over in the event of Yar'Adua's departure from office, there would be an expectation that the presidency should be handed over to a northerner. This has raised speculation that Jonathan could be forced to resign.

Were he to do so, the constitution states that the president of the Senate would take over as acting president for no more than 3 months, during which new elections would be held.

WHAT ABOUT THE SUPREME COURT RULING? If the Supreme Court annuls the April 2007 election, both Yar'Adua and Jonathan would leave office.

The president of the Senate would take over as acting president and organise fresh elections within 3 months.

WHERE MIGHT THIS LEAVE POLICY?

Yar'Adua's critics believe he has already moved too slowly on reforms such as restructuring the energy sector and have questioned the seriousness of his efforts to curb corruption.

The doubts over his health and Nigeria's political direction, whether or not he is forced out early, risk holding up the process even further.

If Yar'Adua were unable to continue and controversy arose over whether Jonathan could take his place, that might also stoke anger in the oil-producing Niger Delta since the vice-president is from the region.

Attacks by Niger Delta militants seeking a greater share of the region's wealth have already heavily cut oil output in Nigeria, the world's eighth-biggest exporter.
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Nigeria's president returns home after long trip

Postby Richard Akindele » Sun Sep 07, 2008 1:14 am

LAGOS, Nigeria (AP) — Nigerian President Umaru Yar'Adua returned to the West African country Saturday after more than two weeks in Saudi Arabia, where he reportedly spent a lengthy stint in a private hospital, officials said.

Information Minister John Odey told The Associated Press that Yar'Adua landed in Nigeria early Saturday and is "strong and well."

The opposition has demanded more disclosure on the state of Yar'Adua's health and Nigerian media reported that Yar'Adua spent much of his trip to Saudi Arabia in a hospital undergoing treatment for his chronic kidney condition.

While Yar'Adua has long been known to suffer from a kidney ailment, government officials say he traveled to Islam's holiest land primarily as a pilgrim, although they say he has consulted with doctors during his 16-day trip there.

But the political opposition has been pressing for more details.

The Nigerian media has reported that Yar'Adua's situation is more serious than the government has acknowledged, and that many members of Yar'Adua's family and political allies have traveled to Saudi Arabia to be with him. One major mass daily newspaper reported Friday that Yar'Adua may have undergone a kidney transplant.

Yar'Adua has made several lengthy trips to overseas medical clinics since he became governor of a northern Nigeria state in 2000.

He also flew unannounced from the country in mid-2007, disappearing to Germany for days, just before April 2007 elections that he won. Election observers condemned the vote as rigged and unrepresentative of the public will.

The government has insisted that during Yar'Adua's trip to Saudi Arabia he had been able to fulfill his presidential duties — apparently trying to forestall challenges to his authority.

If Yar'Adua were to leave power before his term ends in 2011, the official reins of government would be passed to Vice President Goodluck Jonathan.

But under an informal agreement among Nigeria's business and political elite, presidential power should be rotated between Nigerians from the north and the south, the country's two main population blocs.

Yar'Adua's predecessor was a southerner, as is Jonathan, Yar'Adua's deputy. Many fear that power passing again so soon to a southerner would raise fierce opposition from northerners, and potentially undermine the country's fragile political consensus.
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Postby Richard Akindele » Wed Sep 17, 2008 2:24 am

ABUJA, Sept 16 (Reuters) - Nigerian President Umaru Yar'Adua has no plans to resign, his spokesman said on Tuesday, responding to local media reports that he was planning to step down because of health problems.

"It is absolutely rubbish. There is no such thing. The president has not resigned and there is nothing like that in the offing," said spokesman Olusegun Adeniyi.

The 57-year-old leader, known to have a chronic kidney problem, travelled to Saudi Arabia officially for a Muslim pilgrimage. But senior Nigerian officials and a medical source in Saudi Arabia said he had received treatment during the trip.

Yar'Adua's health has been a source of constant speculation in the Nigerian media and opposition politicians, among others, have voiced concern about whether he is fit enough to govern.

State security officers arrested three senior TV journalists in connection with the false report, which was broadcast by Channels TV sourcing the official News Agency of Nigeria (NAN).

"Since NAN itself has categorically denied being the source of the report that the president may resign, it can only be assumed that the report is the handiwork of persons who do not wish the country well," Adeniyi said.
Richard Akindele
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